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ORCA-bench: How Ready Are Language Model Agents for Oncall?

arXiv:2607.28545CLAISE30 jul 20261 min readHN ×4PDF

Top AI coding agents diagnose under a third of realistic production outages correctly.

25.3%

Best RCA accuracy, Medium tasks

Even the best of five frontier agents misses most realistic incidents.

How it works

  1. Oncall is different

    Root cause analysis starts from vague complaints, hours late, across noisy metrics, logs, traces and code. Existing benchmarks drop key pieces.

  2. Record a real shop

    Six days of telemetry from a 19-service demo store, faults triggered by feature flags, 1,079 tasks with varied report vagueness and delay.

  3. Agents fall short

    Best accuracy is 25.3% on Medium and 10.0% on Hard; removing source code lowers accuracy and raises hallucination for every model.

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From the paper